Market structure
Locate price within its recent range and distinguish a completed break from an unconfirmed move.
PUBLIC RESEARCH FRAMEWORK
Methodology & Risk
An independent VANG Alpha risk framework asks what supports a view, what conflicts with it, and what would change the decision.
Evidence before interpretation
Scout records the observable market window. Intelligence compares structure, participation and context, while preserving alternative explanations. VANG treats an active market as evidence of activity, not automatic proof of direction.
The risk lenses
Whale / flow context
Examine concentrated participation and flow without assuming the identity or motive behind it.
Leverage / open interest
Consider whether outstanding exposure could amplify a move or make an apparent signal fragile.
Macro, rates and DXY
Review interest-rate, currency and scheduled-event conditions that may support or challenge the thesis.
Liquidity
Ask whether market depth and trading conditions could change the meaning or execution of a view.
Event risk
Identify known events that can quickly change the evidence or the relevant time horizon.
Stress testing
Test how the thesis behaves when important assumptions move against it.
View invalidation
State the observable condition that would make the current view no longer valid.
Multi-factor risk review
Reconcile supporting and conflicting factors before accepting a conditional view.
Conditional views
Execution presents LONG, SHORT or WAIT as a conditional research view. The condition and invalidation level matter as much as the label. Risk may leave a conflict open, in which case waiting can be a deliberate conclusion.
Outcome review
Learning compares the locked decision with the later recorded market path. The original view remains fixed, allowing the team to review both useful evidence and errors without rewriting history. The BTC examples are available in the Historical Cases section of the homepage.
This page describes public research principles. It does not specify private signal weights, thresholds or internal routing rules. VANG Alpha does not claim any third-party endorsement.